Are we ready for holographic computing? Is it already time to gear up for a new powerful device called HoloLens?
This is where opinions differ. Let’s listen to what James McQuivey, principal analyst and vice president at Forrester, says about the current hype on HoloLens.
In an article from Harvard Business Review, editor Scott Berinato had the chance to interview James McQuivey and got answers to some of the most viral questions concerning HoloLens.
But firstly, we will take a look at the economic perspective:
HBR: Executives don’t have a lot of time to think about things that are just hype. Is there any reason for them to pay attention to HoloLens?
“McQuivey: Yes. As an executive, you care about this because in Forrester’s Technographics survey data, there are 7.2 million adults in the US that have the ideal combination of attributes that makes them early candidates for HoloLens. They like technology, they have an Xbox, they have children, and they have an annual household income of more than $100,000. If Microsoft can persuade even half of them to jump in, that’s 3.6 million consumers, or 45% of the people who bought a Kinect at launch who will try a HoloLens by 2016.”
Quite impressive numbers and by the way – 2016 is not too far from reality. James McQuivey reasons his narrow time frame estimation as follows:
Why won’t it take that long?
“All the pieces are in place. Consumers are ready for new technology — Apple sold 80 million iPads in its first two years, compared to 1 million iPods in its first two years. Studying barriers to consumer adoption has been my passion since before my doctoral studies and I now find myself with very little to study given how rapidly the barriers are falling. But the technology itself is moving faster than before.”
Fair enough. Nevertheless it is still uncertain how HoloLens will make it through the market as it is still a prototype and not released yet.
James McQuivey argues in favor of an incremental integration into our everyday life – no big-bang-killer-app that changes our routine at once.
“Like the early web, this technology will not generate a killer app but will instead make smaller breakthroughs with existing applications throughout a wider range of industries and companies. Unlike the early web, it will not take a decade for that diffusion to occur.”
All we know is that HoloLens attracts a lot of attention as Microsoft seems to make science fiction become reality.
Please read the full article to get further insights into the topic from Scott Berinato and James McQuivey here.
If you can’t get enough of James McQuivey’s bliefs, also check out his book Digital Disruption!